This morning on National Public Radio, Steve Inskeep interviewed Roger Lowenstein about the economy and the housing market. Roger Lowenstein, the author of The Origins of The Crash: The Great Bubble, a book about the Wall Street crash of the 1990's, has written an article which will be in Sunday's New York Times magazine about the housing market. In today's interview, he brought up some interesting points about the history of mortgages in this country. According to Mr. Lowenstein, in the 1950's local banks gave people mortgages. Investment accounts earned 3% and bankers used this money to provide 6% mortgages. People dealt with the local bank as, obviously, today's myriad of lending institutions did not exist.
In the 1970's Wall Street got into the mortgage lending act and created new securities from mortgage money, which were then sold to investors. Bankers would get paid to originate the loan and then would sell the loan to investors. Local mortgages were no longer the only source for money. All kinds of options for lending were created. Through the 80's and 90's, more "new style" loan programs were created. These new loan packages contributed to the problems we are seeing today.
I am sure Mr. Lowenstein's article will be an interesting and informative read. I will add my thoughts to this blog after I read his article.
However, it is important to remember there is both a national and a local economy. Our local economy is still amongst the strongest in the country and will continue to be so because of our strong job market.
Two Seattle Times articles, an article from the 30th and the headline story in today's paper, report Washington State led the nation with the most number of cities, 5, in the top 20 cities for appreciation so far this year. Prices in Wenatchee were up 23.54% , Longview saw a 13.6% increase, and the Seattle/Bellevue/Everett area experienced a 9.89% increase. Appreciation in the state as a whole ranked third in the nation with 9.12% growth.
It is clear the increase in appreciation happened earlier this year, however, economist Stanley Duobinis states the key to Washington states's economy, "It always comes down to the local economy. Washington's has been an above average performer because of the monster companies there, and their business is pretty solid."
His other comment, "A lot of growth restrictions are basically driving up the price of land, and therefore changing the nature of the house you can build on the land and causing prices to rise quite rapidly," echoes remarks I made in earlier posts this year. The two issues, the great economy and growth management issues will continue to help our real estate market over the long haul.
Please let me know if you have any comments about this article or after you read The New York Times this weekend.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Grab a Copy Of This Sunday's New York Times to Read an Article About the Economy, Mortgages, and Housing by Financial Expert, Roger Lowenstein
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Enjoy the Last Days of Summer on Seattle's Eastside at Snoqualmie Falls
The Puget Sound area is hopping this weekend with events ranging from Bumbershoot to a Jazz Festival in Anacortes to the Barnum and Bailey Circus in Everett.
ot. However, if you head down the path there is even a better spot for viewing the falls which is less crowded than the main observation deck. You can get a more panoramic view of the falls from here.
There are picnic tables and a nice grassy area to stretch out, relax, and enjoy a picnic.Don't forget to stop in and see the Salish Lodge, one of the premier luxury lodges in the Northwest. The Lodge offers fine dining, luxurious rooms, and a wonderful spa.
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Sunday, August 26, 2007
The Future of Real Estate Marketing, My Views From Connect SF
For my last thoughts on the Real Estate Connect conference, Connect SF, here are some of the trends we should expect to see in real estate. Many of these trends are already here and becoming part of the very social fabric of our lives, not just in real estate. A case in point: In the August 27, 2007 issue of Newsweek, the cover story was about Facebook and how it jumped from a venue for college students to a site for everyone and anyone to connect. Turning to the section called, "My Turn", the Dean of Admissions at Pomona College, Bruce Poch, wrote about looking for authenticity when reviewing college applicant's information. Frank Rich of The New York Times said in the August 19th edition, "The rise of YouTube certifies the passing of Mr. Rove's (Karl Rove) era, a cultural changing of the guard in the digital age". Open information, connectivity, and authenticity on the internet, web 2.0, is everywhere, including real estate.
Here is what we should see in the world of real estate:
A national multiple listing service - every home everywhere in one database.
Video presentations for homes on the internet - real people talking about real homes.
Real time video tours of a home with viewer interaction.
Mapping will no longer be "flat maps", but will show homes at different angles. Layers of maps with different information regarding a specific property will be superimposed onto each other.
Web 2.0 is a place for collaboration and conversation. Think Craig's List, think Facebook, these sites are just the tip of the iceberg. Everything will be open and available on the internet.
Localism - This is huge! People crave information about the area, the neighborhood, the street and it will all be open and out there for buyers to review. Buyers are demanding more detailed information about schools, commutes, shopping, a particular street, the neighbors, and neighborhood activities. Finding out the local school's test scores is no longer enough.
Real estate - real time. Mobile real estate. Picture yourself walking by a home for sale and checking all the information, including video tours and photos on your phone.
Blogs will be the future of Realtor advertising. A blog will give the public insight into the writer, the Realtor. Authenticity will be the key to success. Buyers and sellers will first "interview" prospective Realtors by getting to know them online. Buyers and sellers will contact the Realtor with whom they feel most comfortable.
More of an online presence for traditional media.
The beauty of web 2.0 is the amount of valuable information out there for the public. It's refreshing to see buyers and sellers become more educated.
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Thursday, August 23, 2007
When You Are Selling Your Home-The First 6 Hours Are Critical
You have worked for weeks getting your home ready. You've had your garage sale and you've been packing up and decluttering your home. It's been painted, recarpeted. It looks so great, you wonder why you never did all these things before. You wonder why you are moving, except commuting to NYC for work from Seattle can be a bit difficult.
Your home is posted for sale and the phone does not ring. No one comes to see your new home when it's fresh on the market. You wonder why. You look on your Realtor's company website to see your home. Your home is posted, the description is right on, but it says:
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Monday, August 20, 2007
What were the chances of selling a condo on Seattle's Eastside in July, 2007?
Sellers had a 36% chance of selling a condo on Seattle's Eastside in July of 2007.
(information obtained from MLS and Windermere charts)
- July, 2007 918 condos for sale, 332 sales, 36% chance of selling a condo.
- June, 2007 840 condos for sale, 382 sales, 45% chance of selling a condo.
- July, 2006 554 condos for sale, 393 sales, 70% chance of selling a condo.
The increase in inventory is the big news this year. Since the start of the year, inventory has climbed from 507 to 918 condos for sale. Inventory is up by 55% since January! There were 288 sales in January and 332 this past month. Sales have only increased by 14% this year.
Although sales increased from January to now, sales numbers decreased from last July, from 393 to 332 sales. The decrease in sales is not so dramatic, particularly when compared to the increase in inventory.
The condo market has undergone a huge shift from last year when 70% of the listings were selling. Everything sold last year with multiple offers. Now we are seeing more price reductions and longer market times. Last month we saw a more level playing field between buyers and sellers. This month we have gone from a strong seller's market to a buyer's market.
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Your neighborhood skinny: what were the chances of a home selling in your neighborhood in July,2007?
The plateau: Sammamish, Issaquah, North Bend and Fall City
Sellers had a 21% chance of getting a home sold, DOWN from 25% last month and DOWN from 42% last year.
Median home prices dropped by about 5% to $569,800 from $602,475.
Inventory is up by 51.7% and sales have declined by 21.7% from last year.
I repeat my words from last month. If you are looking for a home on the plateau, now is the time to grab it! As a buyer, you have more choices than have been available for three years.
West Redmond/East Bellevue
Sellers had a 33% chance of getting a home sold, DOWN from 42% last month and DOWN last year.
Median sales price increased to $599,000 from $524,950 last year, 1 14.1% change.
Inventory is also up by 51.9%
The neighborhoods close to Microsoft are still the best performing area on the Eastside. However, we are seeing slowing down there also.
South Bellevue
Sellers had a 22% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 25% last month and DOWN from 36% last year.
Median price climbed to $749,975 from $679,000, a 10.5% increase.
Inventory jumped up by 35%.
Woodinville/Bothell/Kenmore/Duvall
Sellers had a 25% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 26% last month and DOWN from 36% last year.
Median price was up from $476,000 to $550,000, a 15.5% increase.
Inventory is up a whopping 56.2%
Kirkland
Sellers had a 22% chance of selling a home, DOWN slightly from 23% last month and DOWN slightly from 25% last year.
Median price climbed by 15.8% to $757,475 from $654,250.
Inventory is up by about 21%
The percentage of sales as compared to inventory has changed the least of all the Eastside areas.
West Bellevue
Sellers had an 18% chance of selling a home, DOWN significantly from 33% last month, and UP from 14% last year.
Median pricing rose by 23.2% to $1,354,975 from $1,100,000.
Inventory climbed by 20%.
The sales drop translates to 21 less sales this past month.
Redmond/Education Hill/Carnation
Sellers had a 21% chance of selling a home, DOWN from 25% last month, and DOWN from 31% last year.
Median pricing was up from $624,900 to $644,435, a 3.1% increase.
Inventory doubled and was up by 53.2%
Last month appreciation was down because the appreciation reported was a reflection of last month's sales, which were lower in price.
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Sunday, August 19, 2007
What were the chances of a home selling on Seattle's Eastside in July, 2007
Here are the numbers for single family residences:
For complete year-to-date data, you can review these charts.
- This month, July, 2007: 3235 homes available, 773 homes sold, 25% chance of selling.
- Last month, June, 2007: 3107 homes available, 841 homes sold, 27% chance of selling.
- July 2006: 2281 homes for sale, 803 homes sold, 34% chance of selling.
(Numbers are from derived from MLS data and for pending sales of single family homes, not closed sales)
Inventory increased this July by about 1000 homes from last July, a significant jump in available homes. With each passing month, inventory has increased this year, so our numbers are much higher than January (1895 homes in January vs. 3235 in July). However, the number of new listings coming on the market is less than previous months. The addition of 128 homes for sale in July is one of the smallest monthly increases this year. Below is a list the number of new listings added to to the market each month:
- January - 1895 homes available
- February - 1910 homes available, 15 new listings
- March - 2126 homes available, 216 new listings
- April - 2444 homes available, 318 new listings
- May - 2823 homes available, 379 new listings
- June - 3107 homes available, 284 new listings
- July - 3235 homes available, 128 new listings
Overall, the number of properties, homes and condos, on the market increased by 224 properties this month, an increase of 96 condos along with 128 single family listings. (I will be reporting about the Eastside condo market in a separate article. )
How have sellers been fairing? Our median sale price is up, but not every month. The median price each month is a function of what's sold that month, so we are seeing some monthly fluctuation. However, I believe, barring any complete meltdown of the mortgage industry, there will be some good appreciation come December. Competition, however, has increased as the overall gap between the number of listings and the number of sales became greater. When selling your home, it should be priced against the current competition, not just the past sales. If you are a seller, expect to have your home in pristine condition when going on the market. Your home must be perfect and positioned with professional marketing the first moment your listing hits the internet, not a day later. Your Realtor should have all of the marketing complete and ready to go before you are listed.
Is there a silver lining for sellers? With less new listings coming to market, is the amount of new inventory slowing down? We shall see in the next few months.
How are buyers fairing? Buyers should be out buying right now. The choices are just great. In many areas there's a softening of prices. If sellers are in tune with the current market, sellers are more negotiable. I have seen some price reductions in some communities where homes sold with multiple offers just a few months ago. If you are a buyer with impeccable credit, this is a time for you to be out looking and buying. You may also have less competition with other buyers.
Can homes still sell in a day in this market? Yes, I just had a closing on a home in central Bellevue that sold in one day for just over $700,000. My buyers were able to see the home within hours of its listing. We presented the offer that night and it was accepted first thing in the morning. That day many other buyers were scrambling on that house, but too late. My buyers were able to react quickly because they had seen a lot of homes. When they walked into this home, it was clear it was the one and it was worth the full asking price.
Check out the charts listed above and let me know if there is other data you would like to see. I will comment each month with some different things I see happening in the market. Your thoughts are welcome! Stay tuned for my condo report and eastside neighborhood report.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Viral marketing, Thinking Outside of the Box, What Your Realtor Should Do When Marketing Your Home
Back to a few more articles on Connect SF, Real Estate Connect in San Francisco. Connect SF was great, but nothing was more fun and interesting than the keynote speaker, Hugh MacLeod. Hugh is a cartoonist, humorist, and viral marketer extraordinaire. He has a website called gapingvoid.com. One of his jobs is marketing wine for a South African winery, Stormhoek.
(This is my photo of the Blue Monster cartoon taken during Hugh's talk at Connect SF. Great copies of the cartoon can be found on the attached Gaping Void links.)
His sense of humor and creativity resulted in a marketing campaign that greatly increased the number of cases of wine sold. Here is how he did it. Hugh created this cartoon which he passed onto a friend who worked at Microsoft and the cartoon took off. Microsofties have gotten a big kick out of it, downloaded the cartoon, and put it on computers and T shirts, you name it. There is even a group on Facebook called Friends of the Blue Monster.
Part of the beauty of this cartoon is the website for the winery, Stormhoek, is listed at the bottom of the cartoon, along with Hugh's gapingvoid.com website. This, of course, piqued a whole lot of people's interest, resulting in a new segment of the market finding out about Stormhoek and buying the wine. Hugh sent complimentary bottles of wine to bloggers who subsequently blogged about the wine, helping again to increase wine sales dramatically.
The message here: The job description for Realtors includes marketing properties. Realtors need to think outside of the box. It is even more important now when the market is tougher.
When you hire a Realtor to market your home, your Realtor should use creative internet and web 2.0 marketing to showcase and sell your home. There are new and great sites for putting homes and information out in front of buyers. The old marketing strategies of newspaper ads and open houses is not enough. A dynamic web presence is the key to maximum exposure and maximum dollars to home sellers. As I mentioned on a previous post, Street Advisor is just one example. This site gives neighbors a chance to comment on the nature of the neighborhood. For example, does everyone get together for an Easter egg hunt or a summer picnic. The internet is the portal to community information. What about Craigs List? This is a "community based" website which is the perfect vehicle for advertising a home. Try using Zillow. Realtors can advertise homes on the site. Expolive, Microsoft's website is another great marketing tool.
Bottom line, there are great marketing tools out there to reach a vast number of people. Make sure your home gets full advantage of these marketing sites.
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Thanks to The Seattle Humane Society for Our New Family Member, Henry the Dog
We, or I, started our search online this time. There is a great website for locating dogs from all over the country. I spent a fair amount of time online looking at all the dogs in need of a home. Pretty heartbreaking stories. It makes you want to take them all home. There were dogs who were blind, without a limb or had socialization problems. By the way, a word of warning, do not start looking at these sites until you are truly ready to get a dog!
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Tuesday, August 14, 2007
It's very expensive to live in Seattle or on The Eastside, But It's Really Expensive to Live in the Suburbs of London.
We all know the Seattle/Eastside market is and continues to be a very expensive place to live, however, it is all relative. I met my client today who is moving back to London for a good-bye lunch. We had lunch at Yarrow Bay Cafe on Lake Washington for her "last meal" in The States. She picked a fabulous day for it. The weather was absolutely perfect. We were able to get a table outside and had a wonderful time. Seaplanes were flying by. The Argosy ship was doing its afternoon cruise. The Olympic Mountains were out. It could not have been a better day.
I wanted to learn a bit about the London area real estate market. Sue is moving back to Horsham, where she grew up. Horsham is 20-30 miles outside of London in West Sussex. Sue estimates the size of the town to be similar to Redmond, WA. There is a train that goes directly from Horsham to London and is about an 1 1/2 hour commute.
Housing prices are quite high in Horsham, about double the home prices here. An expected home purchase for Jac
k and Sue will be an end unit row house from the Victorian era, possibly similar to these row houses pictured to the right. The new home will have three second floor bedrooms with a first floor bath and be about 1200 square feet. Their home in Redmond was a 2200 square foot, four bedroom home with 2 1/2 baths.Sue estimates the cost will be about $600,000 US, the same price as her two story Redmond home, which is on a 10,000 square foot lot. (US. Copyright freefoto.com)
The financing in England is handled very differently from here. According to Sue, all mortgages are variable rates and can be held for as long as 60 years. She's not quite sure what current interest rates are in the UK, but the interest rate for savings accounts is higher than here. Typically, if the interest rate on savings is higher, mortgage rates are higher.
Why is she moving back? So many people move to the Eastside for a high tech position, often at Microsoft, but decide to go back "home" to be close to family.
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Saturday, August 11, 2007
Going to be Out of the United States When You Are Closing on the Sale of Your Home or When is Blue Ink Important in a Real Estate Transaction?
A break from my articles about Connect SF, the Real Estate Connect Conference in San Francisco, and back to the real world of selling real estate:
Here is a tale about closing when out of the country, Power of Attorney forms, and the color of the ink.
I have clients moving back to the UK after several years in the US. The husband left in early July and had no plans to come back for the closing of the home sale. I had the escrow company send him a Power of Attorney (POA) form to sign prior to leaving the country. In the State of Washington, there are specific Power of Attorney forms for the sale of real estate. POA forms must be completed by an attorney or an escrow company. Realtors cannot complete the form.
Escrow instructed the seller to have the form notarized and to return the original to escrow to be recorded on title before closing. The notary was instructed to complete the form in blue ink. The seller appointed his wife to represent him since she would be present in the US for closing. All seemed to be handled, the home went on the market, and off they both went to the UK. The sellers had given me a copy of the POA, but had kept the original. (We shall refer to the husband as Jack and the wife as Sue.)
Just before Sue returned to the US, I reminded her to bring the original POA so it could be recorded on title. Sue thought she had a copy of the POA with her in the UK and the original document was in her home in the US. When Sue returned to the US, she couldn't seem to locate the original POA.
I had visions of Jack standing in line for hours at the US Embassy in Grosvenor Square in London to get a new POA form notarized. Only US notaries can sign a POA and they can be found at embassies or consulates. Typically, there are hundreds of people per day at an embassy looking for some assistance from the US government. It can be a real hassle to try to get something notarized at an embassy. Then the form would have to be sent immediately back to the escrow company via Fedex or some other service so the closing of the sale would not be delayed.
After much searching, Sue found another copy of the two page POA. Jack's initials were in blue ink, so she knew the first page of the POA form was an original. The second page had the notary's signature and seal on it. It looked like a copy because it was in black ink. My trusty escrow officer suggested trying to smudge the notary stamp with a slightly damp finger. In her experience, if a notary stamp smudges, it's an original document. If it doesn't smudge, it's a copy. We had a smudge, we had an original!
A couple of things to keep in mind when getting a Power of Attorney form completed:
Escrow had instructed both the seller and the notary to sign the POA in blue ink. With signatures in blue ink, original forms are easily identified. The notary at Jack's bank had not read the escrow company's instructions properly and signed her signature in black ink. The notary signature in black, not blue ink, was the problem. Jack and Sue had an original document the whole time, but because it had been completed by the notary in black ink, it was almost impossible to tell the difference between a copy and the original.
Another tip: There is a specific power of attorney form for a seller and a different form for a buyer. Please talk with your attorney or the escrow company to get the correct form.
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Wednesday, August 08, 2007
#3 Connect SF, So What is Up With Zillow and is Real Estate Print Advertising on its Death Bed or Should It Be?
In San Francisco, I had the good fortune to sit with Drew Meyers, who is a Community Relations Specialist for Zillow, during one of the main events. However, I think Drew's title should be Zillow's blogger extraordinaire.
I mentioned to Drew that I liked to advertise my listings on Zillow, but was concerned because "zestimates" were often much lower than market values and listing prices. If the "zestimate" for a home was much less than the sales price for the home, I would not advertise the home on Zillow. Drew let me know that Zillow is very aware of the issue and is working on new algorithms which should give more accurate "zestimates" of value. By the way, I am sure many of you know that as a home owner, you can log onto the site and update your home information to get a more accurate "zestimate" of value. Zillow has no way of knowing if you have done some major updating of your home unless you add that data.
It's also free for Realtors to advertise listings on Zillow. Your home should be advertised on the local MLS, but your Realtor should be advertising in all the right places. Your home should be advertised where buyers are searching for homes, which (no big surprise here) is now on the internet. In today's world, your home should be listed on many real estate sites, not in the newspaper.
Besides Zillow, another great tool that your Realtor can use is vflyer. This is an internet flyer service that will post your home sale on Trulia, Oodle, Edgeio, Vast, and Craig's List. The beauty of internet advertsing is you can track the hits or views your home receives online. You know if buyers are looking at your home. It's so much more meaningful than the newspaper.
I am excited about this, because for so many years Realtors would advertise homes in newspapers and get little or no results. Sellers would always want their homes advertised in the Sunday paper, but rarely did it generate any activity and hardly ever resulted in the sale of a home.
There was talk at the conference that many of the large real estate companies might cut back on their newspaper advertising in the near future. (Ironically, the New York Times just switched to smaller sized pages in a cost savings measure) Do I hear the sound of the death knell for real estate print ads?
On another note, Drew had also been a presenter in the first Blogger Connect seminar in which the participants spoke about "Finding Your Voice" as a blogger. His panel consisted of two other great Seattle bloggers, Marlow Harris of 360Digest and Ardell DellaLoggia of Rain City Guide. Dustin Luther, the founder of Rain City Guide, presented during another of the Blogger Connect meetings. Seattle is again out there in the forefront of real estate information and technology with these interesting people.
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Monday, August 06, 2007
Article #2, Connect SF: Things I Learned About What's New, Exciting and Different in Real Estate
Okay, so I am now back from Connect SF, Real Estate Connect, in San Francisco. It was pretty intense with long days, great speakers, and great information. I'm going to write a series of articles about what I learned while at the conference. First, I thought I'd tell you what Turn Here, Street Advisor, Sellsius, and Live Deal are all about, since I mentioned them in my first article. This is innovative stuff that will be available to all, if not already.
One of the key issues at this conference, all of which I will detail in another article, is the advent of videos on the internet. Turn Here is a company that produces videos for all kinds of venues, including real estate. Their videos of homes are professionally made, but with the home owners or Realtors speaking, not a professional. Their videos encompass views of the home for sale with shots of the surrounding neighborhood. Their video demonstration at the conference depicted a woman who was walking through her neighborhood with her dog, showing all the parks and restaurants, etc., that were located nearby her home. Videos are a great opportunity to showcase the area around homes. Buyers want to know what is available nearby and what the community is like.
What do your neighbors think about your street? Soon all of this will be on the web at Street Advisor. This website has been created by an Australian group who presented at the
conference. Anyone who lives on a particular street can post reviews on the street, the neighborhood, you name it. People who live on the street can communicate with each other. This website represents another of the growing trend on the internet: to bring all information out on the table and give people an opportunity to connect, share, and have conversations. I truly liked this company as they must have been thinking of me when they created their logo and T-shirts. My favorite color scheme of black, red, with a dash of white!
Do you want to get to know your neighbors even better? Fat Door is coming to a neighborhood near you! One of the founders of this website is an ex-Microsoftie who moved down to Palo Alto to start this company. The company is out of beta and live in the Palo Alto area. The Seattle area of the site should be up and running in a few months. This site is an opportunity for you to get to know your neighbors even better. People who are neighbors will be able to introduce themselves to each other via email. I have a few ideas for these people based on my volunteer work for the Kirkland Senior Council in Kirkland. I have already talked with the founder and will be contacting him about some ideas.
Live Deal is a bit like Craig's List in that you can post all kinds of things for sale, including real estate.
By the way, Craig Newmark, the founder of Craig's List, was a featured speaker and winner of an Inman News innovative award. His site won for the Craig's List community as a whole for the spirit of community the website supports.
Last, but not least, is Sellsius, a real estate blog that has been around for a bit. The two writers of the blog, Joe Ferrara and Rudy Bachraty, III, did a road trip across the United States from NYC to the conference at in San Francisco, meeting bloggers along the way.
More on the latest trends and Connect SF in upcoming blogs....
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Wednesday, August 01, 2007
On Being A Real Estate Innovator/Geek-San Francisco, Realtor and Blogger Connect SF

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A path leads you down to the river, which is a good hike, but worth it!



